Wednesday, October 19, 2011

#LisaIrwin : Pat Brown Article On Lisa 'Gone baby, Gone '

by Pat Brown

Pretty much, that is all we know right now. Ten-month-old baby
Lisa Irwin was there and then she wasn't. Two weeks have passed since her disappearance and she hasn't reappeared, dead or alive. Wait, we know one other thing: she didn't climb out of her crib and go for a walkabout. Someone removed her from her home, so we knows someone knows something. We just don't know who. In missing baby cases where proof of abduction is weak, there ends up being two scenarios: the parents did something to the child or someone else slipped in and made off with the child. Unlike an abduction where a child is seen by witnesses being dragged into a vehicle or a case where a child walking from school never arrives home, but disappears but her parents have solid alibis, a child who goes missing on the parents' watch often causes the parents to tbecoming suspects at some point in time. The parents of Sabrina Eisenburg became suspects very quickly; the parents of Madeleine McCann became the police focus when the detective on the case eventually began to think the timeline and parents' behavior didn't add up. Both of these cases remain open and the missing children have never been found. Both cases have a camp that believes the child was abducted and a camp that thinks the parents caused the death of the child and orchestrated a cover-up. If Baby Lisa is never found, the parents, Deborah Bradley and Jeremy Irwin, will be added to this club.

Once upon a time we believed parents of missing children: we never doubted that the people standing in front of the camera, crying and begging for their child's return, were playing us. But after we got burnt by the performance of
Susan Smith and a number of others, we have become more skeptical. We now replay the video to see if the parent is crying real tears and we watch their t duped into expending emotion on a parent who will turn out to be a killer and a fake and we don't want to spend our valuable time searching for a child whose parents already know exactly where she is.

Baby Lisa is missing and many people are not accepting the parents' story at face value and throwing them their unconditional support. They are searching for inconsistencies in their story, for proof that the baby was abducted, for alibis that are supportable, and for behaviors that don't seem right.

And, unfortunately, for Deborah Bradley and Jeremy Irwin, they are not faring well in the analysis.

The basic hurdles parents must clear these days to keep the public faith in them include:

Real tears: Debo
rah clearly had tears in many interviews; Jeremy, no.
Strong emotion: Deborah, yes, Jeremy, no.
Nice house, well kept: yes
Good looking baby: yes
Charming photos and video: yes
Willingness to speak in the media: yes, but then refused to do local media, only national. Made it seem like a desire to be famous might be at play
Willingness to talk to the police: yes, until they stopped. Then they started again, only now police say they are not answering all the questions

Pass the polygraph: Deborah says she failed; Jeremy didn't take one.
Consistent story: Deborah has changed the time frame and now claims she was drunk; Jeremy first said he checked the kids first and now says he talked to Deborah first
Crime scene has visible signs of abduction: There is only a slightly opened window and left- unlocked door which does not prove an abduction occurred
Parents show responsible behavior: Deborah now states it is okay for her to be drunk while caring for the children

Suspicious strangers have been lurking around: So far there has only been a homeless handyman who was said to have been cleared

Police not focusing on parents: The police are clearly heavily focusing on the parents
Not lawyering up: They now have Joran van der Sloot's lawyer which may be smart but makes the them look like they need a strong defense.

Not having thi
ngs about the case that make you go "hmmm." Deborah has stated that her children heard some strange noises but she has never asked them about what they heard and when because she doesn't want to upset them. Another thing that has bugged me is that Deborah has called her child "Baby Lisa" in television interviews; this is a name given by the media to identify the story and not something a mother usually calls her own child. Then, the "drunk/blackout" story came out after the parents got a lawyer and one wonders if this is a defense strategy for court or an way to excuse Deborah from answering any more police questions about what happened that night. Finally, Deborah changing the time she last saw her daughter (put her to bed) seems like a way to emphasis off the later time, a time that her sons may have heard something and that Mom doesn't want to acknowledge. Oh, and Deborah also said she thought she would be arrested which is very odd unless she knows there is more evidence pointing to her than we know.

If I add up this list, I have to say the parents haven't done so well going over these hurdles. Public suspicion is likely increasing rather than decreasing. Right now, I would say as a criminal profiler, the evidence and behaviors indicate the parents are more likely to have involvement in the disappearance of Baby Lisa than a stranger abducted her. But, without proof or solid evidence, this set of inputs could be misinterpreted - an abductor might have managed to sneak in and out without detection. The parents might have odd behaviors - even personality disorders - which cause them to act in a manner that arouses suspicion but they still didn't do anything to their baby. Mom and Dad could be awful parents and still be innocent of doing anything criminal. But, because they are not passing the "hurdle" test very well, the police are going to be all over them, people are going to stop looking for the baby, and, if no abductor is ever caught (and the parents aren't found guilty), then, like the Eisenburgs and the McCanns, a cloud of suspicion will always hang over their heads.

Where do you stand on the likelihood of Baby Lisa's parents being involved in her disappearance? What would you add to the list of "hurdles?" How does what you have seen of the case and the parents affect your willingness to support the search for Lisa?